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Tuesday, September 01, 2009

2009 Fantasy Football Search Draft Guide

Introduction

It's time to evolve as a fantasy football league member. It's time to stop wasting hour upon hour studying your possible first round selections. It's time to ditch the automatic running back selections in rounds 1 & 2. It's time to win. There are so many myths and bad information out there for fantasy football players it has just gotten insane. One of my favorite myths is the third year wide receiver theory. This idea is so ridiculous that it can't even be considered a rational thought. Sure some receivers break out in their third season in the NFL but some break out in their first. Some will break out in their second year, some will never break out at all. You see, theories like this are just gimmicks thought up by people who want to sell magazines or get their name in a newspaper as a fantasy football "expert". We want our readers to become educated, productive and successful fantasy football players who will be secure enough to ignore all of the "tips" and "tricks" they see splashed across a glossy magazine or brightly colored website. Thus, every year I put together a little Draft Guide of my own where I squash silly gimmicks like the third year wide receiver, the running back only first round and quarterback platoon theory. Inside this Draft Guide I'll explain what you need to do to prepare for your draft, target the players you want and succeed in building the team that will win you a championship this year.

I. Preparation

A. The goal is to win. If you are serious about competing in your fantasy football league then it is in your best interest to prepare yourself accordingly. Sure, most of us join these leagues to have fun and make the NFL season more exciting but deep down all of us would like to win. Many leagues are collecting extra funds nowadays to buy shiny metal championship trophies, plaques and other awards that make it that much easier to say "na-na, na-na-na!" at the end of the year. Entering each season prepared instantly gives you a leg up on the guy who casually saunters into the draft carrying a notebook and the local newspapers "fantasy advice" section. These are the guys who run out of players after the tenth round and start picking all of the local teams special teams and practice squad guys. Don't be that guy!

1) Begin your pre-draft preparation no later than August 1st. The NFL season usually begins the first week of September and thus most fantasy drafts are held between August 15th-September 2nd. Starting early will give you more time to put together a draft strategy, talk to your buddies about their plans and decide whether to buy some state of the art drafting software or put together your own draft book. The more you pay attention to the goings on of NFL training camp the more likely you are to know all of the latest injuries, retirements, suspensions and demotions around the league. For members of the Fantasy Football Search War Room, read my Training Camp Blog. In there I've kept up with all position battles, little known injuries, depth chart changes and the overall appearance of players, coaches and teams during camp. If you find yourself unprepared for the draft, all it takes is a username, password and $10 to catch up instantly with printable cheat-sheets, rookie reports, free agent assignments and everything else you could possibly need in the Fantasy Football Search Draft Kit.

2) Get some outside help. In today's day and age a few dollars can bring you a wealth of information. Make your life easier by spending the $10-20 and subscribe to one of the dozens of fantasy football websites out there. If you are reading this then chances are you recognize that for a simple $10 you can be locked into all the latest news, injuries and fantasy football information you can handle for the entire 2009 season with the Fantasy Football Search Draft Kit. Wise move my friend because that $10 got you into every NFL teams training camp practice, trainers room and team meetings. Not to mention printable cheat-sheets, coaching breakdowns, free agent advice, weather reports and much, much more.

3) Your draft book. More and more fantasy guys are making use of technology and bringing a laptop to the draft. While this is a great tool to have make sure that your draft site is equipped with both power outlets (do not rely on batteries!!) and wi-fi compatibility. If you can't get online then the laptop becomes just a fancy notebook and if your draft runs long and your battery is drained then all of your work will be useless. I suggest putting together a hard copy draft book inside of a three ringed binder or specialized folder. Inside you should have multiple copies of Fantasy Football Search's updated cheat-sheets for each position as well as NFL team's bye weeks, strength of schedule, your leagues rules including scoring system, keeper lists (if necessary) and a roster sheet to record all of your picks. If your league does not use a draft board or some sort of record of all picks then it is advised that you also have your own draft recap form inside of your draft book. If you are accustomed to using a specific draft program on your laptop then by all means use it but make sure you have all of the information listed here available to you as well as an adequate power supply.

II. Day Of Draft

A. Take it seriously. Get ready for the draft the same way you would an important meeting at work or a first date with the hot waitress from Chili's. Get some sleep the night before, don't go out all night and roll up to the draft hung-over. You might as well just write a check straight to the commissioner and drop it in his mail box at that point. There are certain details you must keep in mind in order to have the best draft possible.

1) Don't drink at the draft. At least not until you land Ryan Grant in the fifth round or Chris Henry in the ninth. Every year there is a guy or two that shows up intoxicated or starts pounding as soon as they arrive. Again, don't be that guy. Even if the draft is at your house wait until the draft is almost over before you start dull your senses. Remember you will be paying for any mistakes you make all season so stay focused on the prize.

2) Arrive early. Unless the draft host is also holding a family birthday party or baptism prior to the draft show up at least fifteen minutes before the posted draft start time. If it's cool with the host then get there a half-hour or full hour prior to the draft. Help the poor guy get things ready or at least save him from his wife's lecture on how the house better be clean when she gets home. As soon as you arrive claim the best available seat or at least where you will be most comfortable. If that nice leather recliner with drink holder right in front of the draft board is open put your draft book, bottle of water or even your dirty sweat socks on it to claim it as your own. The more comfortable you are the easier it will be to stomach the drunk guy in his Seahawk jersey asking if Shaun Alexander has been taken yet.

3) Rank enough players. If you are in a twelve team league and are drafting sixteen rounds then 192 players will be chosen in this draft. Don't show up with your top 150 and say you will wing it from there. In most twelve team leagues it is a good idea to have a minimum, yes minimum of 250 players rated in your draft book.

III. Early Rounds (#1-3)

A. Safety first. I am not here to tell you exactly who you should draft and when. Every draft is different, every league is different and each of us are different as well. What I will tell you is to grab impact players early. Meaning players who have proven or are sure to be this season every week fantasy starters. Make sure you consult our Season Pass also to give you an idea of how certain players will fit on your team. These early picks are not for guessing on players or for taking that stud rookie running back who you just know will be getting all the carries soon. There is a time and place for that kind of thinking during a draft, the first three rounds though are not that time.

1) Do not take a running back. Ok, do take a running back if you can grab Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson or another top end back. But, do not worry about having to take a running back in the first round. If you have a middle pick (6-10) and can land a Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson do it. Sure Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson are quality backs but you get much more value taking the top quarterback or wide receiver then in taking the sixth or seventh rated running back. If you miss out on a top back in the first round do not immediately feel obligated to take the best available running back in the second round either. In fact, in drafts where most teams load up on running backs in the first two rounds you can build a team around the best quarterback and wide receivers around. Then make up for the lack of a back later in the draft when everybody else is taking middle of the line receivers who they may or may not start every week depending on the matchup. This is my going against the grain philosophy that has paid off time and time again. Get top shelf players with your first few picks not just the best running backs on the board.

2) No running back by committee early. If you do wish to fill your running back spot early do so by taking a guy who'll get the majority of his teams carries and most importantly the goal line carries. This means no Reggie Bush, Julius Jones or Knowshon Moreno. Let the other guys in your league suffer with these guys all season and decide when to start them and when to not. If you want to fill your running back positions early take a Frank Gore or Brandon Jacobs. These guys won't get many long TD runs but they will get the ball 20+ times per game and don't have anybody lurking over their shoulder when it comes goal line time. Yes Donald Brown has a chance to be a breakaway type RB, but he will be brought around slowly and has Joseph Addai ahead of him on the depth chart. Don't begin your draft by guaranteeing yourself headaches all season long.

IV. Middle Rounds (#4-10)

A. Swing for the fences. These rounds are for taking the players that you are really high on entering the season. Do you like the improvements the Lions have made? Grab a Kevin Smith or even Bryant Johnson at some point . Do you like the new passing scheme in Denver? Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney are sure to benefit the most there if you are correct. You will want to secure your regular starting lineups in these rounds as well.

1) Take a tight end. If you league requires you to start a tight end every week then you should grab a top one in the fourth or fifth round. The goal here is to beat your opponent to the punch. If you have to start one every week and are in a twelve team or more league then having an Jason Witten or Greg Olsen is a big advantage. If your league counts tight ends as the same as wide receivers then taking an Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez or Kellen Winslow will provide you more upside then a middle of the road wide receiver like Chris Chambers or Derrick Mason. Tight ends can provide a great value when drafted in the middle rounds.

2) Protect your assets. If you wind up taking Brian Westbrook or DeAngelo Williams in the early rounds, now is the time to make darn sure that you insure him with LeSean McCoy or Jonathen Stewart. The Eagles offense is a running back's dream especially in a PPR league format and the Panthers can run at will against most opponents. If Westbrook goes down you can bet that McCoy will put up above average to good fantasy numbers. There are certain situations around the NFL where it almost doesn't matter who the player is they are still going to produce. This is commonly referred to as "handcuffing" and is an important fantasy tool. If you take Frank Gore, be sure to grab Glen Coffee as well to protect yourself because you never know what can happen on the waiver wire. Just because a quality fantasy player goes down does not mean his backup will not produce just as well. Remember, Michael Turner, Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook were all at one time backups to quality fantasy producers.

V. Late Rounds (#11-20)

A. The later rounds are where we separate the men from the boys. It is how fantasy football champions are made. Many fantasy players lose interest in the late rounds. They gather up all of the local teams players, guys who went to college close bye and random has-beens from across the league. The fact of the matter is that the late rounds in a draft are just as important if not more so then the first couple rounds. Anybody can get a quality player in the first or second round but what happens when those players go down? The waiver wire is usually pretty slim pickings especially in larger leagues so making use of the late rounds of a draft is absolutely essential.

1) Bye week replacements. Hopefully you have done a good job in juggling your projected starters with their bye weeks but it is mandatory to back these players up now. Do not draft six players with the same bye week and think that it is only one week and you'll magically survive one down week. Fantasy champions do not have down weeks. Every week is important and thus it is important to have quality players on your bench who can step up during your starters bye weeks.

2) Go young. The best fantasy football players are the ones who can tell you all you need to know about that running back Cleveland took in the sixth round. The NFL draft should be on every fantasy owners to-do list each off-season. There are players every year who come into the league as nobodies and wind up being waiver wire gold late in the season. Don't let these players be on the waiver wire, draft them. Sure, most young players are not given starting jobs right out of training camp. But starters get injured, benched, suspended or cut throughout the season so understand that at some point these young players will get their chance to shine. And if you can evaluate talent or have a membership to Fantasy Football Search then you should be able to stash a few of tomorrow's studs at the end of your draft.

3) Always calculate upside. Use the draft to acquire as many players that if given an opportunity will produce. So many times owners will take players like Jake Delhomme, Jamal Lewis and Santana Moss. But what are any of these guys actually capable of? Even if the rest of the league fell apart and they were the only players left standing their overall fantasy value would be minimal. After you have assured yourself of no bye week letdowns it is time to draft some players with big time upside. Look for guys who are in new systems that suit their skills. Take a backup that nobody has ever heard of but has a top notch offensive line in front of him. Some wide receivers become big time fantasy producers just because they are a frequent red zone target. Then of course you have your goal line specialty running backs like LenDale White and LaDell Betts. Don't just fill out the end of your draft with random slot receivers who play only in passing situations or in non spread formation offenses. Instead, take the rookies who are impressing the coaches in practice and are just waiting for their opportunity to come.

4) Warm weather kickers. Since many owners wait until the late rounds before even considering to take a kicker, keep certain facts in mind when making your selection. In September and October the weather across the country is pretty mild with minimal distractions. However, as we get into the months of November and December there is significant changes in both temperature and precipitation in many NFL venues. When deciding between kickers always factor in what type of climate he will do most of his kicking in. If you are trying to choose between Robbie Gould who kicks in the windy city of Chicago or Neil Rackers who will kick in the friendly dry desert air? You may want to go with Rackers as you know he won't leave you scrambling for a replacement if a blizzard comes to town. Kickers who play in the AFC and NFC South and West divisions have a much easier time late in the season then kickers who play with outdoor cold weather teams. Don't underestimate kickers, you need their steady points each week to build a winner.

VI. Summary

Whether its money or pride you play for it is always worthwhile to win. The most important advice and most common mistake I see year in and year out is fantasy owners who give up. It usually happens as soon as one of their starters goes down with a knee injury and somebody else has the backup. All of a sudden they stop posting messages then eventually stop setting lineups. I don't care if it's fantasy football or life in general by throwing in the towel you are missing out on what could have been a glorious comeback. Stay the course my friends. If you follow these draft rules and pay close attention to Fantasy Football Search all season long you'll be contending at the end of the season guaranteed. Best of luck to all of you in the 2009 season!!

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