2009 Busts
So much hype. Every year, there are players that are given an unsolicited free pass into the first round or two of fantasy drafts. It seems that so much emphasis is put on what players did last year that it causes certain players to be drafted way higher than they should be based on what their prognosis is for this season. After all, we are drafting for this years fantasy points, not last years or a careers worth, right? With all of this in mind, here is my bust list for 2009. Leave your comments below and tell me what you think.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady -- Patriots -- I just do not understand the fascination with Brady? He set an NFL record for TD passes in 2007 with 50 but other than that he's been a slightly above average fantasy QB. I expect Brady to produce solid numbers, but for a QB to be taken in the first or second round he should be expected to throw for at least 4000+ yards and 30+ TD's. Factor in Brady's major knee reconstruction, losses along the offensive line and the loss of pass happy offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the picture gets even more cloudy for me. Tom Brady will throw for 3500+ yards and 25-30 TD's this season. Those numbers along with his injury risk does not make him worthy of a top pick. I rate him around 5 overall for QB's and wouldn't be surprised if 8-10 QB's have better seasons than Brady this year. So, while I believe his numbers will be that of a quality QB, his average draft positions for those numbers makes Tom Brady a bust in my book.
Brett Favre -- Vikings -- He is 40 years old and playing with a partially torn rotator cuff and coming off of biceps surgery. Sure, Favre is a first ballot hall of famer, but that will do little for your fantasy team this year. I am certain that Favre's consecutive game streak ends at some point this year and that Sage Rosenfels will outperform him in the games that he starts. If Favre is your backup fantasy QB, your are OK. But if you are counting on him to lead your squad to a championship, you are going to be really disappointed.
Running Backs
Chris Johnson -- Titans -- Don't get me wrong, I love Johnson's speed, lateral quickness and vision but I think he is in for a disappointing sophomore season. This is just a gut call on my part but one that has some reasoning behind it. The Titans offensive line is old and has been banged up all offseason long. Kevin Mawae is finally back but fresh off another surgery and without any practice time at all. I am not sure if the entire running game will falter for the Titans or whether LenDale White just has a breakout season, but the big leap that many are expecting for Chris Johnson isn't going to happen.
Clinton Portis -- Redskins -- Portis is absolutely hated by the Redskins coaching staff. There is so much animosity there that I doubt that we get 4 weeks into the season without a major blowup out of Portis. Then we have to acknowledge that he will be running behind the worst offensive line in the NFL or at least this side of Seattle. There won't be much running room, scoring opportunities or harmony in Washington this season and thus you should avoid Portis like the plague.
Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens -- Bills -- Owens was looking like a nice undervalued player up until Turk Schonert was fired from his offensive coordinator position with the Bills a week ago. Now, Dick Jauron will once again be involved in the offense and that can mean only one thing. The Bills are now a running team! After an entire offseason spent implementing a spread offensive no huddle system and acquiring the talent in which to run the system the team now decides to hand the reigns back to the most vanilla coach in the NFL. The Bills offense just took a major hit and went from being a sleeper system to one that you should avoid.
Antonio Bryant -- Buccaneers -- Anybody who thinks that Bryant will post similar numbers to what he did last season is either wearing rose colored glasses or just plain delusional. Bryant is a good WR, but he is the only weapon at all in Tampa Bay this year and will see a ton of double and triple teams this season. He is also coming back from knee surgery this summer and will be catching passes from Byron Leftwich this season. He will not come close to last years numbers and is another guy who could blow up at any minute and thus is a risk to anyone who drafts him.
Lance Moore -- Saints -- Everything Moore did in 2008 you can pretty much write into Robert Meachem's column for the 2009 season. Moore is an ideal slot receiver and that is exactly where he will play the majority of the time this season. He'll get some receptions, but won't come close to the 10 TD's that he had last season. With a healthy Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey, the Saints will be able to use more options than they did last year when Moore produced his greatest season ever. It won't happen again so grab Meachem but stay away from Lance Moore.
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Quarterbacks
Tom Brady -- Patriots -- I just do not understand the fascination with Brady? He set an NFL record for TD passes in 2007 with 50 but other than that he's been a slightly above average fantasy QB. I expect Brady to produce solid numbers, but for a QB to be taken in the first or second round he should be expected to throw for at least 4000+ yards and 30+ TD's. Factor in Brady's major knee reconstruction, losses along the offensive line and the loss of pass happy offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the picture gets even more cloudy for me. Tom Brady will throw for 3500+ yards and 25-30 TD's this season. Those numbers along with his injury risk does not make him worthy of a top pick. I rate him around 5 overall for QB's and wouldn't be surprised if 8-10 QB's have better seasons than Brady this year. So, while I believe his numbers will be that of a quality QB, his average draft positions for those numbers makes Tom Brady a bust in my book.
Brett Favre -- Vikings -- He is 40 years old and playing with a partially torn rotator cuff and coming off of biceps surgery. Sure, Favre is a first ballot hall of famer, but that will do little for your fantasy team this year. I am certain that Favre's consecutive game streak ends at some point this year and that Sage Rosenfels will outperform him in the games that he starts. If Favre is your backup fantasy QB, your are OK. But if you are counting on him to lead your squad to a championship, you are going to be really disappointed.
Running Backs
Chris Johnson -- Titans -- Don't get me wrong, I love Johnson's speed, lateral quickness and vision but I think he is in for a disappointing sophomore season. This is just a gut call on my part but one that has some reasoning behind it. The Titans offensive line is old and has been banged up all offseason long. Kevin Mawae is finally back but fresh off another surgery and without any practice time at all. I am not sure if the entire running game will falter for the Titans or whether LenDale White just has a breakout season, but the big leap that many are expecting for Chris Johnson isn't going to happen.
Clinton Portis -- Redskins -- Portis is absolutely hated by the Redskins coaching staff. There is so much animosity there that I doubt that we get 4 weeks into the season without a major blowup out of Portis. Then we have to acknowledge that he will be running behind the worst offensive line in the NFL or at least this side of Seattle. There won't be much running room, scoring opportunities or harmony in Washington this season and thus you should avoid Portis like the plague.
Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens -- Bills -- Owens was looking like a nice undervalued player up until Turk Schonert was fired from his offensive coordinator position with the Bills a week ago. Now, Dick Jauron will once again be involved in the offense and that can mean only one thing. The Bills are now a running team! After an entire offseason spent implementing a spread offensive no huddle system and acquiring the talent in which to run the system the team now decides to hand the reigns back to the most vanilla coach in the NFL. The Bills offense just took a major hit and went from being a sleeper system to one that you should avoid.
Antonio Bryant -- Buccaneers -- Anybody who thinks that Bryant will post similar numbers to what he did last season is either wearing rose colored glasses or just plain delusional. Bryant is a good WR, but he is the only weapon at all in Tampa Bay this year and will see a ton of double and triple teams this season. He is also coming back from knee surgery this summer and will be catching passes from Byron Leftwich this season. He will not come close to last years numbers and is another guy who could blow up at any minute and thus is a risk to anyone who drafts him.
Lance Moore -- Saints -- Everything Moore did in 2008 you can pretty much write into Robert Meachem's column for the 2009 season. Moore is an ideal slot receiver and that is exactly where he will play the majority of the time this season. He'll get some receptions, but won't come close to the 10 TD's that he had last season. With a healthy Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey, the Saints will be able to use more options than they did last year when Moore produced his greatest season ever. It won't happen again so grab Meachem but stay away from Lance Moore.
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posted by Jeff Mans at
8:35 PM
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