Fighting Chance Fantasy's Start/Bench Week 1
I am going to attempt in this column to stay away from the top few guys at each position. Obviously if you have Tom Brady, or LaDanian Tomlinson, or Randy Moss they are a must start every week. Here are the next tier guys who could be help or hurt your team in the first week of the year.
Start: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals generally do pretty well against San Francisco. Hell, everyone tends to put up pretty good numbers on the Niners defense. It isn't because the defense stinks that bad, it is just that they are on the field so much due to the sucky offense. With Boldin, Fitzgerald, Edge and Pope at his disposal, and a serious lack of pass rush in San Francisco, look for Warner to put up over 300 yards, and most likely 3 touchdowns.
Start: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans. The Texans were not one of the better defenses against the pass last season, and I believe that Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing attack took a big step forward in 2007. It was the first time that Big Ben was a legitimate fantasy QB. With the expected breakout of Santonio Holmes, reliable Hines Ward, rookie Rashard Mendenhall, and tight end Heath Miller, expect Roethlisberger to spread around 250 yards and 2-3 scores, perhaps one running the ball as he is the size of a linebacker.
Sit: Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys. Concussions that force you to miss the majority of the preseason don't make for productive opening weekends. Cleveland has some weapons with all-world WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, but with his lack of reps, I expect Anderson to struggle out of the gate. Not to mention that the Cowboys have a pretty impressive defense. Hopefully you have a better option to start in the first week of the year.
Sit: Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles. With the signing of Asante Samuel, the Eagles have the best secondary in football. They have three potential Pro Bowlers at corner, and Bulger is coming off an inconsistent, injury filled season. I expect the Rams to be much better this year, but I think that Bulger will have a tough time on opening weekend.
Start: Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns. One of my favorite fantasy players heading into the 2008 season, expect Barber to have a coming out party in his first season as the main man in Big D. After sharing the duties with Julius Jones for the past couple seasons, Barber will be the workhorse this season, and I expect BIG things. He goes against a fairly weak run defense right out of the gate to boot, so I'm looking for over 100 yards and a score.
Start: Maurice Jones Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Oakland Raiders. The Raiders defense was one of the worst in the league last season at stopping the run, giving up over 130 yards a game. Not sure if Fred Taylor's arrest will cause any discipline, doesn't look like it will in time for this Sunday's game. But Jones-Drew has become a great fantasy source for touchdowns in his first two seasons, and there's no reason to think he won't score even more. As Taylor gets older and to the end of his career, expect Jones-Drew's role to expand more and more.
Sit: Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Ok, I just want to start by saying that this has nothing to do with the Bengals defense. They are nothing but average at best, but this is McGahee's first game since having surgery just a few weeks ago, and while I think he might play, I don't see him getting more than a handful of carries. Look for rookie Ray Rice to carry the load Week 1, and then depending on how he does we will see how carries will be distributed in later weeks.
Sit: Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots. Just a couple short years ago, Larry Johnson was one of the best players in all of fantasy football. Some injuries to himself and his offensive line later, and Johnson seems to have fallen out of the top 10 in some drafts I've seen. Johnson was a product of the system, a pretty decent passing attack and one of the best offensive lines in football left him gaping holes to run through. Now, with a much different line, and NO passing game to speak of, Johnson will be the focal point of every defense, every week. And they start against a good one, in the nearly undefeated Patriots. They aren't spring chickens, but they still play great defense.
Start: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans. Ok, the Texans have a great cover corner in Dunta Robinson, but I really think that this season will be Holmes' coming out party. He is great at stretching the field and scoring touchdowns. The Steelers have enough weapons, that it is hard for the defense to focus on any one of them, and I could see Santonio having over 100 yards and a score.
Start: Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions. True, the Falcons are playing a rookie QB in his first game in the NFL. I know, crazy to recommend White. But, have you seen the Lions TRY to play defense? They are awful. I still think the Lions win the game and Ryan struggles, but I think he gets enough completions to White to make him a good play this upcoming week.
Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots. Bowe had a great rookie season with over 70 catches, and he looks like he will have a bright future in the league someday.......if the Chiefs can ever find a quarterback! The Pats have a stingy defense, and Brodie Croyle is awful. Bowe might be a better start against weaker teams, but against the Pats, you should sit him unless you have no choice but to play him.
Sit: Randy Moss, New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs. JUST KIDDING!!! Just trying to see if you are paying attention! Obviously, he is a must start every single week.
Start: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Hey, he isn't injured yet, and when Heap is on the field, he is generally a productive player. The Bengals defense is awful at best, so it is very possible that rookie Joe Flacco will seek out his security blanket often in his first NFL start.
Sit: Owen Daniels, Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers were the highest rated defense last season, and that is with All-Pro strong safety Troy Polamalu missing a good portion of the season. Daniels is a better than average option at tight end, but I think he will struggle here in the first week of the season.
Week One is by far the hardest week to try to predict, so don't overreact on your players this week if they do very, very good, or if they do very, very bad.
As always, your questions (draft questions, adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Go to www.fightingchancefantasy.com for more information.
Quarterbacks
Start: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals generally do pretty well against San Francisco. Hell, everyone tends to put up pretty good numbers on the Niners defense. It isn't because the defense stinks that bad, it is just that they are on the field so much due to the sucky offense. With Boldin, Fitzgerald, Edge and Pope at his disposal, and a serious lack of pass rush in San Francisco, look for Warner to put up over 300 yards, and most likely 3 touchdowns.
Start: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans. The Texans were not one of the better defenses against the pass last season, and I believe that Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing attack took a big step forward in 2007. It was the first time that Big Ben was a legitimate fantasy QB. With the expected breakout of Santonio Holmes, reliable Hines Ward, rookie Rashard Mendenhall, and tight end Heath Miller, expect Roethlisberger to spread around 250 yards and 2-3 scores, perhaps one running the ball as he is the size of a linebacker.
Sit: Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys. Concussions that force you to miss the majority of the preseason don't make for productive opening weekends. Cleveland has some weapons with all-world WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, but with his lack of reps, I expect Anderson to struggle out of the gate. Not to mention that the Cowboys have a pretty impressive defense. Hopefully you have a better option to start in the first week of the year.
Sit: Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles. With the signing of Asante Samuel, the Eagles have the best secondary in football. They have three potential Pro Bowlers at corner, and Bulger is coming off an inconsistent, injury filled season. I expect the Rams to be much better this year, but I think that Bulger will have a tough time on opening weekend.
Running Backs
Start: Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns. One of my favorite fantasy players heading into the 2008 season, expect Barber to have a coming out party in his first season as the main man in Big D. After sharing the duties with Julius Jones for the past couple seasons, Barber will be the workhorse this season, and I expect BIG things. He goes against a fairly weak run defense right out of the gate to boot, so I'm looking for over 100 yards and a score.
Start: Maurice Jones Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Oakland Raiders. The Raiders defense was one of the worst in the league last season at stopping the run, giving up over 130 yards a game. Not sure if Fred Taylor's arrest will cause any discipline, doesn't look like it will in time for this Sunday's game. But Jones-Drew has become a great fantasy source for touchdowns in his first two seasons, and there's no reason to think he won't score even more. As Taylor gets older and to the end of his career, expect Jones-Drew's role to expand more and more.
Sit: Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Ok, I just want to start by saying that this has nothing to do with the Bengals defense. They are nothing but average at best, but this is McGahee's first game since having surgery just a few weeks ago, and while I think he might play, I don't see him getting more than a handful of carries. Look for rookie Ray Rice to carry the load Week 1, and then depending on how he does we will see how carries will be distributed in later weeks.
Sit: Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots. Just a couple short years ago, Larry Johnson was one of the best players in all of fantasy football. Some injuries to himself and his offensive line later, and Johnson seems to have fallen out of the top 10 in some drafts I've seen. Johnson was a product of the system, a pretty decent passing attack and one of the best offensive lines in football left him gaping holes to run through. Now, with a much different line, and NO passing game to speak of, Johnson will be the focal point of every defense, every week. And they start against a good one, in the nearly undefeated Patriots. They aren't spring chickens, but they still play great defense.
Wide Receivers
Start: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans. Ok, the Texans have a great cover corner in Dunta Robinson, but I really think that this season will be Holmes' coming out party. He is great at stretching the field and scoring touchdowns. The Steelers have enough weapons, that it is hard for the defense to focus on any one of them, and I could see Santonio having over 100 yards and a score.
Start: Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions. True, the Falcons are playing a rookie QB in his first game in the NFL. I know, crazy to recommend White. But, have you seen the Lions TRY to play defense? They are awful. I still think the Lions win the game and Ryan struggles, but I think he gets enough completions to White to make him a good play this upcoming week.
Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots. Bowe had a great rookie season with over 70 catches, and he looks like he will have a bright future in the league someday.......if the Chiefs can ever find a quarterback! The Pats have a stingy defense, and Brodie Croyle is awful. Bowe might be a better start against weaker teams, but against the Pats, you should sit him unless you have no choice but to play him.
Sit: Randy Moss, New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs. JUST KIDDING!!! Just trying to see if you are paying attention! Obviously, he is a must start every single week.
Tight Ends
Start: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Hey, he isn't injured yet, and when Heap is on the field, he is generally a productive player. The Bengals defense is awful at best, so it is very possible that rookie Joe Flacco will seek out his security blanket often in his first NFL start.
Sit: Owen Daniels, Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers were the highest rated defense last season, and that is with All-Pro strong safety Troy Polamalu missing a good portion of the season. Daniels is a better than average option at tight end, but I think he will struggle here in the first week of the season.
Week One is by far the hardest week to try to predict, so don't overreact on your players this week if they do very, very good, or if they do very, very bad.
As always, your questions (draft questions, adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Go to www.fightingchancefantasy.com for more information.
posted by Ryan Hallam at
10:13 PM
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