Team Report: New England Patroits

New England Patriots
By Andy Benoit, www.NFLTouchdown.com
Predicted: 1st
2007 Record: 16-0 (1st AFC East)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (9th year)

Roster Quick View
*rookie
**new veteran
Offense
QB: Tom Brady Can win Super Bowls, post big numbers, sell your product, whatever. The greatest QB of this generation.
RB: Laurence Maroney Most think he’s primed for a breakout season. He’s certainly good enough. But are there enough touches for him in this offense?
WR: Randy Moss Attitude problems? Effort issues? Ha!
WR: Chad Jackson Was a lauded second-round pick in ’06; career has been grounded with injuries. If he’s healthy, you’ll quickly learn a lot about him.
WR: Wes Welker Just guessing, but his league-leading 112 receptions last season has to be some sort of record for a “No. 3 WR.”
TE: Ben Watson Coming off ankle surgery though should be more effective in 2008. Capable of 70 catches if not for the number of stars around him.
LT: Matt Light Tom Brady makes this B- blocker look like an A+.
LG: Logan Mankins Moves extremely well and packs a powerful punch, especially at the second level.
C: Dan Koppen Steadying force inside who is coming off his first Pro Bowl.
RG: Steve Neal Underrated mobility, and experience as a wrestler explains his power in the phone booth.
RT: Nick Kaczur Involved in a drug sting over the offseason. This, coupled with his slow feet in pass protection, could jeopardize his job security.
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QB: Matt Cassel Has plateaud after three years––or at least that’s what they tell us. Third-round rookie Kevin O’Connell will likely become the No. 2 next season.
RB: Kevin Faulk Has embodied the true Patriot for the past decade. Versatile, unselfish and always a little better than you expect.
FB: Heath Evans Capable lead-blocker and short-yardage runner when called upon.
WR: Jabar Gaffney Has nice chemistry with Brady. Could step into a No. 2 role, if need be.
TE: David Thomas Coming off a broken foot that took forever to heal. Must improve his blocking if he wants a job.
OL: Ryan O’Callaghan Has toiled between starter and backup his first two years. Given his power and Kaczur’s situation, don’t expect anything to change in Year Three.

Defense
LDE: Ty Warren Sixth-year veteran who has long been one of the most overlooked players in the game. Terrific in all phases.
NT: Vince Wilfork Stunning power, as long as he’s not having to slide too far east and west.
RDE: Richard Seymour Only 29 and already Canton-bound. Masterful leverage and strength make him nearly impossible to run against.
LOLB: Mike Vrabel Struggles to get off blocks, but it hasn’t mattered yet. Recorded 12.5 sacks last season and has been a solidifying force at virtually every LB spot.
LILB: Victor Hobson** Has experience playing in a 3-4, but won’t beat out Jerod Mayo in the long haul. In fact, may not even beat out converted SS Tank Williams in the short haul.
RILB: Tedy Bruschi Yes, he’s lost a step. But given how callous this organization has been to declining veterans, do you really think he’d still be starting if he couldn’t play?
ROLB: Adalius Thomas Dynamic utility weapon who needs to be featured more in 2008.
CB: Ellis Hobbs Feisty and fast, but must overcome the stigma of being the guy who gave up the game-winning TD in Super Bowl XLII. Also coming off groin and shoulder surgery.
SS: Rodney Harrison Regarded throughout the league as the game’s dirtiest player. Turns 36 in December but hasn’t hit a wall. Keep your fingers crossed, New England.
FS: James Sanders Like rice: you can serve him with everything and he’ll cover your bases without standing out.
CB: Fernando Bryant History with secondary coach Dom Capers will likely afford him the first crack at filling the abyss at left cornerback.
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DL: Jarvis Green One-gap ace who can operate anywhere along the defensive line. Could start for most teams.
LB: Jerod Mayo* Eager eyes are fixed on this 10th overall pick. Can play every LB position but must first learn the league’s most complex defensive scheme.
NB: Jason Webster Has been solid as a starter at times in his career. Though for some reason, teams are always quick to get rid of him.


Key Players Acquired
WR Sam Aiken (Buf)
CB Fernando Bryant (Det)
LB Victor Hobson (NYJ)
TE Marcus Pollard (Sea)
OL Oliver Ross (Ari)
CB Lewis Sanders (Atl)
CB Jason Webster (Buf)
S/LB Tank Williams (Min)

Key Players Lost
TE Kyle Brady
LB Rosevelt Colvin (Hou)
CB Randall Gay (NO)
DL Rashad Moore (Atl)
CB Asante Samuel (Phi)
WR Donte’ Stallworth (Cle)
DB Eugene Wilson (TB)

The Patriots defensive backfield got rocked over the offseason. It shows a certain level of hubris for this club to think they can simply let Samuel walk away. He made opponents think twice before attacking the left side of the field. Had Gay stayed, he would have been the No. 1 CB. Instead, journeymen Bryant, Webster and Sanders will compete for the job. New England might really miss Wilson––especially if one of the safeties gets hurt. Hobson can be plugged in at ILB, but he might not be a long-term solution. Surprisingly, Williams––a career-long SS––could end up starting at ILB. Stallworth was great for this offense, but they’ll have no problem replacing him internally.

2008 - New England Patriots
Rd
Sel #
Player
Position
School
1
10
Jerod Mayo
OLB
Tennessee
2
62
Terrence Wheatley
CB
Colorado
3
78
Shawn Crable
OLB
Michigan
3
94
Kevin O'Connell
QB
San Diego State
4
129
Jonathan Wilhite
CB
Auburn
5
153
Matt Slater
WR
UCLA
6
197
Bo Ruud
LB
Nebraska

Mayo was a versatile star for the Volunteers. The Patriots are giddy about him––and when the Patriots are giddy, pundits take notice. Wheatley figures to start at some point, though 2008 may be a bit soon. He’s admired for his toughness. Crable made regular appearances in the backfield as a Wolverine; now, he’ll study under renowned Buckeye Mike Vrabel. O’Connell was brought in to replace Matt Cassel as Tom Brady’s long-term backup. Wilhite lacks size and playmaking abilities. Slater’s dad is Hall of Fame lineman Jackie Slater. Ruud also has NFL bloodlines: his brother is the starting MLB in Tampa Bay.



New England Patriots 2008 Preview Report
After his team’s stunning 17-14 Super Bowl XLII loss to the New York Giants, the illustrious quarterback stood behind a podium in front of an inordinately rabid, callous media and spoke wistfully about going for a title again next year. Fortunately for Tom Brady, none of the bloodhound reporters were smart (or cruel) enough to ask this question:
Tom, you guys came into this game with the best record in NFL history. Over 18 weeks, you obliterated teams early in the season, took care of other elite clubs at all stops and thrived in every adverse, high-pressure situation. You personally, a three-time world champion, led a prolific offense that shattered virtually every significant NFL single season record. Your team’s defense allowed the fourth fewest points in the league and featured three Pro Bowlers (not to mention at least three other star veterans who could end up in the Hall of Fame). Your special teams were sharp, and the consensus was that your head coach was the closest in the business to reaching Vince Lombardi’s pedestal. If you couldn’t win it all this year, how will you EVER win it all?
Brady would have had as tough a time responding to that as he did New York’s interior blitz.
Surely you have heard of the Super Bowl hangover. You know, the supernatural force that has caused six of the last seven Super Bowl losers to miss the playoffs the following season? If those six teams’ Super Bowl hangover felt like the result of downing a few too many Keystone Lights the night before, you can imagine New England’s must feel like the aftermath of pounding a few too many shots of Everclear (after overdoing it on the El Dorado).
We’ve always been able to offer advice to the Super Bowl loser. Chicago Bears? Improve your quarterback play. Seattle Seahawks? Upgrade your secondary. Philadelphia Eagles? Establish more of a run game. Carolina Panthers? Build on your experience, and maybe think about adding another playmaker or two.
But what do we tell the Patriots?
You gave up five sacks in the Super Bowl, so upgrade your offensive line? They already had three Pro Bowlers up front.
You got burned by Eli Manning in the fourth quarter, so revamp your secondary? Well, Asante Samuel (now an Eagle) was a first-team All-Pro. Rodney Harrison was a feared force. And, if you want to look ahead, Brandon Meriweather was an ascending ’07 first-round pick. Not to mention, if Giants special teams ace David Tyree doesn’t miraculously trap the ball against his helmet after Manning miraculously escapes a sure-fire sack on third-down-and-five, we’re probably marveling at how the Pats D held New York to just 10 points.
A lot of people are eager to tell the Patriots that they need to infuse more youth at the linebacker position. There’s some validity to this (hence the drafting of Jerod Mayo in the first round). But still, realize that the veteran linebackers last season weren’t a problem. Mike Vrabel recorded 12.5 sacks. Tedy Bruschi led the team in tackles. Junior Seau routinely made big plays down the stretch. And free agent pickup Adalius Thomas earned every bit of the $20 million Robert Kraft guaranteed him.
The Patriots don’t have any true weaknesses to correct––that’s why they went into the final game undefeated. Thus, no Super Bowl loser has ever felt as little elasticity in trying to bounce back as this team will. The Pats are being asked to rebound their own three-point rim-out. Impossible? Just about.
Suppose New England comes out and wins every game this fall. Not only will they still fail to assuage the criticism and decrease the doubts––they’ll actually exacerbate them. After all, what the Patriots themselves said all season long proved to be true: winning every game doesn’t mean anything if you can’t win the last. In other words, this loss will follow them.
Of course, let’s not over analyze here. Stiff as New England’s bounce back may be, they’re at least under the direction of one Bill Belichick. And that wistful quarterback from behind the podium isn’t too bad either. Belichick and Brady suffered their first postseason defeat together in 2005 (divisional round at Denver). They bounced back by leading an otherwise average Patriots club to the AFC championship in ’06. In that game New England gave up an 18-point second half lead in a crushing loss to the rival Colts. Belichick, Brady and company rebounded again by winning their first 18 games in 2007.
As the losses become more painful, the Patriots seem to get stronger. The kidney-blow from the Giants would bring most franchises to their knees. But with Belichick and Brady, are we really going to classify the Patriots with “most franchises”?

Offense
Turns out, it could be stopped. In the 11th hour of the ’07 season, the New York Giants created the blueprint for slowing down a Patriots offense that had scored an NFL-record 589 points during the regular season. New York’s performance was so impressive that Football America seems to have almost forgotten about Tom Brady’s mind-boggling 50 touchdown passes and 117 rating, or Randy Moss’s unreal 23 touchdown receptions.
Instead, the focus is on the flaws of New England’s offense that were exposed in Arizona. After seeing Brady pick apart Jacksonville’s conservative three-man pass-rush in the Wild Card round, Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo predicated his Super Bowl game plan on pressuring the passer. Indeed, virtually every quarterback struggles with defenders in his face––and Brady is no exception. While courageous and poised in the pocket, the ninth-year veteran does not have an innately rocket arm like a Carson Palmer or a Brett Favre. Brady’s precision and velocity derive from his textbook mechanics––which can’t be executed with defenders invading his space.
To get pressure on Brady, Spagnuolo overloaded New York’s pass-rush up the middle. Not only did this obstruct Brady’s vision and rattle the cages of Patriot guards Logan Mankins and Steve Neal, as well as center Dan Koppen, it also forced New England running backs to direct their pass-blocking help inside. This left Patriots tackles Matt Light and Nick Kaczur on an island, where they were manhandled by Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan.
Light was an All-Pro last season, but that was simply a case of the uninformed media voters buying into the Patriot hype. What the Giants knew was that the 305-pounder is dexterous in run-blocking but rickety against speed-rushers like Umenyiora. Kaczur shows good power in the ground game, but he doesn’t begin to have the agility to shadow fluid pass-rushers like Strahan. Throughout the entire ’07 season, a mastery of the offense and intrinsic awareness dropping back had allowed Brady to simply step up whenever his pocket would collapse. However, against the Giants, Brady stepped up into the clogged middle. And there’s your blueprint.
So how do Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and his men counter now that Pandora’s box has been opened? Contrary to initial beliefs, a change in front five personnel is not needed. Light is a fine left tackle overall, and Mankins’s power and mobility make him one of the league’s best young guards. Koppen has been nearly flawless for much of his six-year career, and Neal is on a similar level. New England’s interior line also has adequate backups in Russ Hochstein (a strong run-blocker who started in Super Bowl XXXVIII) and Billy Yates (a fifth-year pro who understands the system). Right tackle Nick Kaczur is replaceable, with powerful Ryan O’Callaghan being a worthy option.
The Patriots shifting their focus a little more toward the run could mitigate some of their explosiveness, but at the same time, give opponents more to prepare for. The Giants weren’t too concerned about Laurence Maroney, which is a waste considering Maroney is a fast and punishing young runner. If Maroney can stay healthy for all 16 games (something he hasn’t done yet), he could produce the breakout season that most of Boston is expecting.
However, given that Sammy Morris is fully recovered from the chest injury that ended his ’07 campaign last October, there may not be enough carries for Maroney to get too far past 1,000 yards. Tenth-year pro Kevin Faulk is still an exquisite third-down back, plus the Patriots may refer to fullback Heath Evans or newcomer LaMont Jordan in short-yardage situations.
You may have noticed that New England’s receivers are fairly decent. Ready as Maroney is, Brady and McDaniels will continue to spread the field and air it out. Randy Moss has proven to be the perfect Patriot. He should finish somewhere near his 100-catch, 1,500-yard numbers of a year ago. However, it’s unfair to expect any player to catch more than 15 touchdowns––let alone 23.
Wes Welker is option No. 2, though his inside position makes him a No. 3 on paper. And his production (NFL-leading 112 catches in ’07) suggests he’s actually a No. 1. Welker––whose quickness underneath makes him tailor-made for the slot––undoubtedly benefits from defenses rolling coverage to Moss. Also benefiting this season will be third-year wideout Chad Jackson. Copious injuries have prevented the once-heralded Gator from having a substantial impact through his first two seasons. But with long-striding speed and an improved understanding of the offense, Jackson could emerge as an unexpected weapon in Donte’ Stallworth’s old role. If he doesn’t, there’s always Jabar Gaffney.
Not to be forgotten is athletic tight end Ben Watson. He’s coming off ankle surgery but should be in top form September 7. Backup David Thomas is more of a question mark. He must rebound from the broken foot that has plagued him for the past year. If he does, he then must elevate his blocking, as that’s the only way he’ll get on the field.

Defense
Cynics the world over are carping that the Patriots aging defense is on the brink of destruction. Not quite.
Yes, the final chapters are approaching for a few of New England’s players––most notably 35-year-olds Tedy Bruschi (inside linebacker) and Rodney Harrison (strong safety). But this is a defense that finished fourth in yardage and scoring last season, thanks to Bill Belichick’s elaborate 3-4 scheme. Older veterans can survive here because this zone-heavy system rarely puts defenders in one-on-one situations.
That being said, more speed at inside linebacker would be a huge plus for New England. Recognizing this, Belichick and GM Scott Pioli uncharacteristically drafted a linebacker in the first round: Jerod Mayo of Tennessee. Though injuries hindered him at times in college, Mayo has the athleticism, intelligence and football charisma that the Patriots covet. He played all three linebacker positions as a Volunteer and projects as Bruschi’s heir apparent.
New England would love for Mayo to be able to start right away––but that’s a tall order. Longtime Jet Victor Hobson played in virtually this same scheme under Eric Mangini the past two seasons and could be a serviceable option in the short term. Hobson, however, has only moderate agility and struggles to get off blocks.
One name to consider is Tank Williams. He’s been a mediocre strong safety throughout his seven-year career, but after joining the Patriots this past offseason, he shifted to inside linebacker. Williams, a Stanford product, is intelligent enough to handle the task, and Belichick has always had a fondness for aggressive safeties in the box. Don’t be shocked to see Williams lining up with the first unit on opening day.
Veterans Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas can play inside as well, though both are at their best near the edges. Vrabel, the consummate linebacker for this system, is coming off his first Pro Bowl after notching a career-high 12.5 sacks. He’ll turn 33 in August but, like longtime Patriot Willie McGinest (now in Cleveland), he should be effective in his outside role for another few years.
Thomas’s role needs to expand. New England paid him $20 million in guarantees to come aboard last season. He fit in perfectly but only reached the quarterback 6.5 times (he did have a team-high six tackles for a loss). Part of the issue was that Thomas often had to line up inside. This season, playing the part of Rosevelt Colvin, he should vie for Pro Bowl consideration.
The linebacker depth across the board is solid, especially if Junior Seau decides to come back. Eric Alexander is a coverage specialist. Third-round rookie Shawn Crable was a potent pass-rusher at Michigan. Even special teams maven Larry Izzo can handle a few snaps from time to time.
Amplifying the linebackers is a three-man line that, for many years, has been the class of the NFL. Rarely do blockers reach the second level against New England. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork is a ravenous road barrier inside. Ferocious off the snap, the 325-pounder (likely 345-pounder) has the quickness to collapse any interior offensive line. Wilfork’s stamina is good for a nose tackle, as he does not cede many snaps to backup Mike Wright.
Right defensive end Richard Seymour is ready to take over the world in 2008. Fully healthy for the first time in ages (chronic knee problems have hindered Seymour), the soon-to-be 29-year-old has dropped 10 pounds from his 6’6” frame. Being the most vociferous run-stopping end in football this year is a given for Seymour; surpassing his career-high of eight sacks (set back in ’03) is a possibility.
Left defensive end Ty Warren is another stalwart run-defender capable of reaching the quarterback. First-class backup Jarvis Green is a formidable one-gap penetrater in nickel situations. Green––who can play the run as well––has also proven to be more than adequate as a starter when called upon.
For years, the Patriots and their secondary have been like your old college buddy who never seemed to have any food in his cupboards yet somehow never went hungry. Injuries in New England’s defensive backfield have become commonplace. So have the departures of longtime starters (Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, etc.).
If not for memories of wide receiver Troy Brown keeping the defense afloat as a nickel back, one might declare this to be the year that the Patriots have over-pushed their luck with secondary personnel. During the offseason, New England said goodbye to three capable starters, including Pro Bowler Asante Samuel. However, Belichick believes that the arrival of special assistant coach Dom Capers can mollify things.
Capers must establish his cornerback rotation. Ellis Hobbs is the only clear-cut starter at this point, and considering he has been benched at times during his four-year career and still isn’t fully recovered from surgery on a torn left shoulder labrum, this is a somewhat liberal use of the term “clear cut.”
The candidates for the other starting cornerback job are Fernando Bryant, Jason Webster, Lewis Sanders, Terrence Wheatley and Brandon Meriweather. Bryant is the most familiar with Capers and the scheme, but he tends to get picked on. Then again, so does Webster. Sanders has great awareness and patience, but he lacks playmaking prowess and physicality. Wheatley is a mature second-round pick who has 4.29 speed, but that still might not be enough for him to acclimate right away. Meriweather, a first-rounder a year ago, is the most gifted of the bunch, but the Patriots would prefer to use him at free safety.
As long as James Sanders is healthy, Meriweather likely won’t crack the starting lineup in ’08. Sanders is not flashy, but he consistently holds down the fort in centerfield.
Rodney Harrison has lost some of his speed, which can be a problem considering he’s never taken the best angles to the ball. Still, the 15th-year veteran is a proficient force, particularly as a head hunter over the middle. Should Harrison get hurt––he’s missed 17 games over the past three seasons––Sanders could slide down in the box, or the Patriots could call on Tank Williams.

Special Teams
Stephen Gostkowski has done well as Adam Vinatieri’s replacement, but not everyone believes he’s earned the full trust of Belichick. In the Super Bowl, Belichick opted to go for it on fourth-and-13, rather than kick a 49-yard field goal. In fairness to Gostkowski, the Patriots’ prolific offense had prevented them from attempting any field goals of that length during the regular season, which may explain Belichick’s reluctance.
New England does not prioritize the return game, which is why you occasionally see the heavy-footed but sure-handed Kevin Faulk on run backs. Faulk is utilized because he doesn’t fumble. Generally, reliable Wes Welker handles punt returns. Ellis Hobbs, when called upon, can be electrifying returning kicks.
By the way, not that it matters, but New England’s punter is Chris Hanson.

Bottom Line
Seeing how this team responds to the devastating conclusion of what had been the greatest season in NFL history––and perhaps professional sports history––is one of the most fascinating NFL storylines of 2008. For most clubs, a bounce back would be impossible. But Belichick and Brady lend legitimacy to New England’s chances. Final forecast: Patriots season ends with an AFC championship loss to the Colts.


Myth Buster
Peyton Manning is better than Tom Brady
Yes, Brady’s invincibility and Manning’s vulnerability in big games have evaporated. But let’s not allow this to cloud the bigger picture. Brady leads Manning 3-1 in Super Bowls. For people who truly believe that football is all about winning––and you’d be surprised how few people are really like this––the debate ends here.
For pontificating armchair quarterbacks who marvel at Manning’s command of the Indy offense, understand that Brady has essentially the same power in New England. He just doesn’t use it on every down. What’s more, up until last year, Brady had been doing more with less. Aside from Corey Dillon in ’05, Brady never had a dominant rushing attack behind him. And he didn’t have two superstar receivers like Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison to throw to. Once Brady did get those weapons, he obliterated the record books.
This, by the way, pulled the plug on the argument made by all the fantasy geeks who, for years, have blabbered about how Brady’s numbers are dwarfed by Manning’s.


Open Thought
I like the way Bill Belichick handles the media. Reporters who vilify the guy because of his unshakable ambiguity and guardedness are simply getting the treatment they deserve. One of the biggest problems in our country is that the cut-throat media industry is so profit-driven that seemingly every story we hear is sensationalized or misrepresented.
Belichick knows this––and he knows that nine out of ten reporters would screw his team in exchange for a hot headline. Not to mention, a majority of reporters who question experts like Belichick barely have a tyro’s understanding of the game.
Because Belichick doesn’t march to the media’s beat, his team has survived distractions such as Spygate (largely a media-driven controversy, by the way), having high-profile superstars (i.e. Tom Brady, who, you may have heard, is dating Giselle Bundchen) and player movement (take your pick).