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Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Can The Dallas Defense Hurt Tony Romo?

This question was brought up to me by one of my blog readers and I found it to be one of the best questions asked of the year so far. The question in detail is concerned with the much improved Dallas Cowboy defense and will it affect Tony Romo's fantasy numbers if it continues to get better and dominate the opposing offenses. I carefully considered my answer, and after plugging away at research I wrote him back , YES. Believe it or not, a strong defense can, especially in the long run impact offensive numbers. The logic behind my answer is simple. If the defense is allowing less points, the Cowboy offense will need to score less points. That's simple enough. The deeper logic dictates that the Cowboys will go to the run more to run out the clock, and that is primarily where a good defense hurts the QB. Lets look at the first 4 games of the year, and figure out the trends.
Week 1 Cowboys 45- Giants 35
Dream game for any Tony Romo owners. 4 passing TDs and 1 rushing. This is an example of a game where the Cowboys had no defense at all. The results for the offense were tremendous. The total output 6 TDs. You can't ask for more out of Romo there.
Week 2 Cowboys 37-20
This game was far more subdued then the first game. In a tight game where the defense played very well after the 3rd quarter the Cowboy offense had only produced 2 TD's. Of course with a tight game the quarterback is still throwing, and he threw another TD to seal the game. Not so, cause Trent Green threw another one forcing the Cowboys to run the clock out and of course Marion Barber ran one in. Total output for Tony Romo, 2 TD's. Total output for the team, 4 TD's. This game was played well by the defense, and Romo therefore didn't have to throw as much. Therefore, his output down, the runningbacks up.
Week 3 Dallas 34-10
A defensive gem by the Cowboy defense and truly there first one. Romo threw 2 TD passes in the 3rd quarter putting the Cowboys up late 17-10. After settling for another field goal the Cowboys defense closed the door on what was still a tight game with an interception return. Marion Barber capped a final drive off with a TD run. Now two hings to note here. If the defense didn't get the INT and the TD, Romo would have had to step up and drive down the field. Instead by not only stopping the Bears drive, the defense put points on the board, and with a 4th quarter 17 pt lead you'll go easy. Of course, if the Bears shot down and scored quickly, maybe Romo throws more. Nope, Grossman throws the INT, and Barber get s a cheap TD.
Week 4 Cowboys 35- Rams 7
Here is a game that for Romo was great. 3 Passing TD's and 1 rushing. All three passing TD's were in the 3rd quarter, and inced the game. You can't complain about this game from a fantasy or football point of view, nut note no scores at all in the 4th quarter. Backups were in, and it was over the Dallas offense. Luckily, Romo got his points, but there will be games where he doesn't.
Week 5 will be interesting for Romo and the Cowboys. There is no doubt they will dominate the Bills in Buffalo, but will the defense take away from Romo, and give to the runningbacks or to themselves. I think they will, and the runningbacks will score big. Look for 2-3 rushing TD's against a weak rushing defense, and 1-2 TDs from Romo. The defense could throw in one themselves. Final score 34-13 Cowboys.

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